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  中国天气网讯 预计,21-24日京津冀等北方多地将遭遇强降雨过程。北京、天津、河北、内蒙古等多地将现大到暴雨,北京、河北局地有大暴雨,此次降雨过程将是今年入汛以来华北地区出现的最强降雨。据中国天气网首席气象专家李小泉分析,造成此轮降雨过程主要原因是从蒙古国东移而来的巨大高空低涡。

  北京河北等部分地区有大暴雨

  中央气象台预计,预计21日至24日,北京、天津、河北、内蒙古中部偏南地区、辽宁西南部、河南东部、山东、安徽东北部和江苏北部等地的部分地区有大到暴雨,北京西部和北部沿山、河北东北部等地部分地区有大暴雨,过程累计雨量40~80毫米,局地可达150~180毫米;上述部分地区并伴有雷暴大风等强对流天气,最大小时雨强可达20~40毫米,局地超过60毫米。

  预计,此轮降雨过程最强降雨时段出现在22日和23日,具有累计雨量大、降雨时间长、局地降雨强的特点。

  京津冀地区是本轮强降雨的中心,其中22日至23日,北京大部地区将普降暴雨,西部和北部沿山有大暴雨,局地还会伴有冰雹、短时大风、短时强降雨等强对流天气。

  蒙古低涡掀起华北入汛来最强降雨

  据中国天气网首席气象专家李小泉分析,造成此次暴雨主角是一个从蒙古国东移而来的巨大低涡。

  低涡是高空中心气压较低的空气涡旋,低涡中有较强的辐合上升气流,可产生云雨天气。当它在低纬度以较强形式出现时,就是我们熟知的台风;而在中高纬度出现时,就是雨雪“制造机”了。

  历史上,蒙古低涡也曾造成多次暴雨事件。比如就北京来说,据统计,1956年-2000年蒙古低涡共出现131次,占北京暴雨过程总次数386次的34%,是北京地区出现频率较高的暴雨天气系统。

  不过单纯低涡并不足以形成降雨,需要水汽条件,近日京津冀等地气温持续偏高,水汽条件从南方北上,所以降雨一触即发。

  本周京津冀等地公众应避免进入山区

  气象专家提醒,今年以来,华北地区中北部、内蒙古中东部、东北地区南部、山东中东部等地降雨较常年明显偏少,存在中旱、局地重旱,此次降雨对缓和当地旱情极为有利。但需要注意的是,此次降雨来势凶猛,公众要注意防范强降雨可能诱发的山洪、滑坡、泥石流、中小河流洪水、城乡内涝等灾害。

  另外,北京西部和北部、河北中北部等致灾风险高的山区将有可能出现大暴雨天气,公众尽量避免进入山区、河谷等危险地带。





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