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  中国天气网讯 6月21日夜间至24日,华北地区将遭遇今年入汛以来最强降雨,其中京津冀等地将有暴雨、局地大暴雨。北京市气象局首席预报员熊亚军表示,这次降雨过程由低涡和冷涡系统所致。那么什么是低涡和冷涡?

  熊亚军称,冷涡是指存在于中、高纬度地区,对流层中、上层的冷性的闭合低压环流系统,其中心温度明显低于四周。低涡常指出现于大气中的气旋式低压涡旋。在低涡区内常伴有较强的上升运动,假如水汽充沛,大气又呈不稳定状态,则低涡也可能产生暴雨。当前,低涡的位置和强度直接影响此次降雨的落区和强度,而目前来看,低涡系统的变化仍有不确定性,因此使预报难度增加。

  对于低涡的不确定性,北京市专业气象台首席专家尤焕玲说:“低涡系统非常活跃,每一次旋转对其所在区域都会带来不同的影响,辐合条件好的地区(低涡东南象限)降雨明显,配合冷空气和充沛的水汽条件往往形成短时强降雨、雷雨大风、甚至冰雹天气。不过,低涡一般只有几百公里,在自身旋转的同时还会受大气环流背景等因素的影响,上下东西摆动,低涡的位置和强度均具有变化性强的特点,对降雨的落区和强度会有明显影响。”

  “综合以上因素,低涡活跃多变的特性对降雨特别是强降雨出现的时间、区域都会有较大的影响。尤其本次低涡天气系统影响时间较长,其位置和强度是强降雨预报的关键因素,气象部门密切跟踪其变化情况,滚动跟踪发布降雨信息。”尤焕玲补充道。

  中国天气网首席气象专家李小泉也表示,按现有天气预报能力,准确预报北京将出现这次强降雨天气过程,应是有把握的。但是,各具体地点的降雨强度和总降雨量可以不完全相同。

  这是什么原因呢?李小泉解释称,这是由于,在这个巨大低涡系统内,还含有一些中小尺度天气系统,好似一个大的旋涡里包含数个小旋涡。这种中小尺度的天气系统,通常半径在几公里至十几公里,影响地区小;生命史短是其另一个特点,长的有几小时,短的仅有十几分钟。但是,它们带来的坏天气却可以很强,如局地短时间的特大暴雨、冰雹、大风等等,往往就是由这些中小尺度天气系统产生的。对于预报来说,要想准确报出其出现的时间、地点以及强度,难度较大,而越是时间临近,预报准确性就会越高。这就是我们说的低涡降雨的不确定性。

  “这就好比夏天,潮湿阴暗的草丛中会有大量蚊子,我们预报一个人若光膀子进入草丛,将在半小时内被蚊虫叮咬,这是有把握的,准确性很高。但是具体蚊子会叮咬到哪里,是叮咬左手还是右手,就无法准确预报了。这就是这种预报的不确定性。”李小泉进一步解释道。

  除了中小尺度天气系统,造成降雨预报偏差的还有低涡移动路径。李小泉分析,如果后期的路径偏离了预报,那么降雨的强度、地点、时间也就相应而变了。不过,根据今天上午11时的天气监测结果来看,目前该天气系统的移动路径与原预报情况一致,同时这次的水汽和动力条件均利于降水,因此预计北京的这次降雨天气过程依然会到来,其中22日将是这次降雨强度最大的一天。





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