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  原标题:扩大供地能降低一线城市房价吗

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  中国住房市场存在严重的结构失衡,大城市特别是一线城市住房供求矛盾突出房价畸高,这是公认的事实。对于如何解决这一结构性问题,多数人主张扩大一线城市土地供给,紧缩中小城市土地供应。2017年5月26日,全国人大财经委副主任委员黄奇帆于复旦大学的专题讲座中也提出,中国存在土地供应失衡,大城市人口集中多流入多,结果每年新增的住宅用地反而相对要少。据此他认为,大城市人多就应该多供地,实现人口应跟着产业走,土地应跟着人口走,土地供应爬行钉住人口规模。从直观上看,人越多需要的住房就更多,扩大供地似乎是非常符合逻辑的主张。但从历史和现实看,在大城市病和人口涌入压力面前,特大城市的有效供地能力极其有限,可能不足以对住房市场走势产生重大影响。

  通过扩大供地来解决超大城市住房供求矛盾,逻辑上非常简单直观,其实际效果如何呢?曾有这么一个特大城市,1986年常住人口达到1028万,首次进入千万人口俱乐部。在城市化和大城市化的背景下,随着人口的不断流入,2005年该城市达到1538万,19年净增510万人。此后人口流入加速,接着只花了6年,人口规模又增加了约500万人, 到2011年常住人口已经突破2000万,达到2018.6万人。与超乎预期的人口激增相适应,城市规模被动地一圈圈摊大饼式地往外扩展,由二环扩展到六环,目前大七环也正在建设之中。这应当就是土地供应爬行钉住人口规模的直接结果。在15年前,该城市三环外就属于偏僻得没人愿去的地方。而今六环外的住房单价,都要比很多二线城市最贵的住房还贵一倍以上。由于人口的激增和城市建设规模被动扩大,这个城市正饱经受严重的城市病和高房价症。众多城市居民的宝贵青春,都在超长的上下班通勤时间中被不知不觉消耗。城市过大也造成人情的淡漠和生活品质的严重下降。城市过大还有一个必然结果是房价畸高,尽管房价全国第一,住房还经常需要抢购。最要命的是,由于患上严重的大城市病,这个城市不得不向外疏散人口。为避免疏散人口重新聚集,住房供应不仅无法有效扩大,还必须呈相对收缩的态势。大家都知道,这个城市就是北京。

  由北京案例可见,遵循扩大土地供应原则来解决一线城市的住房供求矛盾,最终可能将掉入如下“摊大饼”陷阱:人口涌入——建设摊大饼——人口进一步涌入——进一步建设摊大饼——人口再涌入——再进一步摊大饼——大饼无法再摊、人口继续涌入——无法治理的高房价症及大城市病。这是因为,在城市化及大城市化这个特定的历史阶段,大城市人口的涌入是动态的,并不会随着土地供应的及时跟进而停滞不前。扩大的土地供应,必将被更多的人口涌入所消化。而受制于资源环境交通等的承载能力,大饼又不能无限制地摊下去。所以在一线城市,土地供应最终是没法钉住人口规模的。或者说,高房价是这些城市在这一历史阶段的宿命。为了稀释房价这一无法达成的目标,而将城市摊成一个让人难以接受的超级大饼,这个教训是非常深刻的。

  从现实看,大多数特大城市,土地扩大供给的空间已经很小了。通过扩大土地供给来平抑大城市房价,只能是一个望梅止渴式的良好愿望。并不是有空地就能形成有效供给,也不是说房子可以一直盖下去。这还需要考虑到区域的环境、交通、公共基础设施等的承载能力。仍以北京为例,尽管有人“惊奇”地发现在四环到五环之间、五环到六环之间还存在不少空地,二环以内甚至还有大片平房,从而认为它还有很大的供地潜力,这实际上是一种误解。如果北京把这些空地都盖上了房子,把容积率进一步提高,那交通拥堵问题将极度恶化以至于无解。在私人汽车时代,我们的特大城市都不同程度存在人口过载或土地过度开发现象,其现实表现是交通的极度拥堵。如果要进一步提高土地开发强度,只能放弃私家汽车出行,而改走公交出行战略,否则交通可能要完全瘫痪。但私家汽车出行,又是我国国民百年中国梦的一个重要组成部分。禁止出行私家车与中国梦相悖,最终或是不得人心、无法推行的。在这种背景下,特大城市如果要提高或至少保持现有宜居水准,不仅没有条件扩大供地,还需要把现有的存量住房拆掉一部分以疏散人口。典型的手段如通过整治开墙打洞、拆除违建、迁走批发市场等低端产业等形式,把低端产业吸附的人口导出。这项运动,在我国的一些特大城市正在轰轰烈烈地开展。所以,在未来的很长一段时间内,中国的特大城市都没有扩大住房供给的潜力,甚至还需要拆除一部分老旧、违章住房,以缓解交通环境压力、维系城市宜居水平。

  总之,只要人口城市化和大城市化的动力不发生根本性改变,高房价几乎就是现阶段我国特大城市的宿命。不扩大土地供应,中国特大城市住房市场必将逐步陷入“香港化”,具体表现为超高房价和低居住水平。而扩大土地供应,随着更多人口的涌入,中国特大城市住房市场迟早也将逐步“香港化”,同时还要掉入“摊大饼”陷阱无法自拔。该如何抉择,可谓仁者见仁,智者见智。雄安新区的设立,也正是基于跳出特大城市这一两难选择困境的一种新尝试,力求为人口稠密地区解决住房供求矛盾探出第三条道路。

  (作者单位:中国社科院财经战略研究院)





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