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  原标题:北京此次暴雨强度不及“7·21” 主汛期或有更强降雨

  中国天气网讯 “此次北京降雨过程,大部地区有暴雨,局地大暴雨,是北京今年来的最强降雨,”今天(21日)下午16时左右,北京市气象局首席预报员熊亚军在接受中国天气网采访时说道,“但无论是降雨总量,还是小时雨强,都不如‘北京7·21暴雨’。”

  今天夜间开始,北京将迎来今年最强降雨过程。预计,今天傍晚到夜间,主要是雷阵雨,局地短时雨强较大,并伴有短时大风或冰雹。最强降雨时段是22日白天到夜间,持续强降雨将对当日早晚高峰有较大影响。23-24日,对流性增强,仍将有阵雨或雷阵雨天气。

  此次降雨与“7·21”相比如何?

  熊亚军介绍,此次降雨,北京大部地区累计雨量可达暴雨量级(60-100毫米),西部山前和东北地区可达大暴雨(120-180毫米),全市平均降雨量为60毫米,最强小时雨强40-60毫米。

  “无论是降雨总量,还是小时雨强,此次降雨过程都不如‘7·21’。”熊亚军说,“2012年‘7·21’北京暴雨过程,全市平均降水量170毫米,城区215毫米,最大小时雨强出现在平谷,达100.3毫米,均大于此次降雨过程。”

  针对近日不少媒体报道的“6年来最强低涡暴雨”,熊亚军表示,此次的确主要是低涡带来的降水,但并不是6年来最强降雨。除了“7·21”外,去年的“7·20”暴雨,全市平均175.9毫米,城区218毫米,也大于这次过程,所以从降水总量来看,并不能说是6年来最强降水。

  尽管如此,此次降雨过程依然不可小觑。

  “今年1月1日以来,北京累计降雨量才62毫米,而此次一次过程就与之所有总量相当,所以是今年来最强降雨,”熊亚军说,“而且此次降雨具有降水时间长、影响范围大、累计雨量大,局地还有短时强降水,对流性强,需关注短时强降水带来的灾害和次生灾害。”

  北京6月暴雨并不反常 主汛期或现更强降雨

  每年七月下旬到八月上旬,是华北地区主汛期,而今年还未到7月就发生大范围的暴雨天气是否反常?

  “历史同期来看,6月的北京有过50毫米以上的暴雨天气过程,并不能说是罕见,”熊亚军解释。

  从北京暴雨全年分布来看,北京地区暴雨存在明显的月变化特征,6月是暴雨的突增期,而7-8月是暴雨集中期。“等到了主汛期,热力条件和水汽条件都会更好,北方冷涡也会继续活动,所以7、8月出现更强的降雨,是有可能的。”熊亚军说。

  目前,北京市气象台已发布暴雨黄色预警,预计21日后半夜至23日,北京将出现暴雨、局地大暴雨,短时雨强较大,小时降雨量可达50毫米以上,并伴有雷电、短时大风或冰雹,请注意防范。

  强降雨将造成山区地质灾害风险提升,滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害都有可能发生,尤其是西部山区,降雨强度大,累计雨量多,地质灾害风险高,公众一定要避免去山区、河谷等危险地带游玩。





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