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  原标题:欧洲央行首次买入5亿欧元人民币,暗藏哪些玄机?

  人民币强势来袭

  欧央行增持人民币的决定,最早要追溯到1月20日。虽然这个决定早早做出,但一直没有找到合适的机会。

  在美联储加息之前,欧洲央行突然宣布:增持价值5亿欧元的人民币作为外汇储备。这是欧洲央行首次持有人民币外汇储备。

  在一份声明中,欧洲央行表示,这意味着欧洲认可了人民币越来越重要的国际货币角色,也反映出,中国作为欧元区最大的贸易伙伴之一,重要性正在不断提升。

  一般来说,外汇储备是一国进行经济调节、实现内外平衡的重要手段。在增持人民币的同时,欧洲央行还表示为了保持外汇规模总体不变,抛售等值的美元资产。

  那么,欧洲央行选择这个微妙时刻投资人民币,究竟有何玄机?未来是否会有更多西方国家加入?

  为什么要买买买?

  据英国《金融时报》报道,目前欧洲央行官方外汇储备规模为680亿欧元。按此估算,此次增持的人民币外汇储备资产占比约为0.7%。

  英国《金融时报》称,虽然5亿欧元对于欧洲央行680亿欧元的外储规模而言,数量很少,但这一举动反映了欧洲对于中国作为全球经济超级大国的接受度正不断增加,同时也渴望与之建立更密切的关系。

  商务部研究院国际市场研究所副所长白明接受中新社国是直通车记者采访时表示,欧洲央行买入人民币主要是看中中国经济持续且稳定的发展前景,同时离不开中欧经贸关系的日益紧密。

  在中国人民大学重阳金融研究院首席研究员贾晋京看来,解读之前需要了解一个重要背景。

  2016年10月1日,人民币正式加入特别提款权(SDR)。特别提款权并不是一项权力,而是一种国际储备货币,俗称“纸黄金”,其价值目前由美元、欧元、人民币、日元和英镑组成的一篮子储备货币决定。

  贾晋京告诉国是直通车记者,自加入特别提款权,人民币实际上就成为了5种最重要的国际储备货币之一。因此,各国央行都需要增加人民币的储备量。

  与美联储加息有关系吗?

  在美联储加息之前卖美元、买人民币,不少人会将发生时间接近的两者联系起来。那么,它们之间究竟有无关联? 

  在申万宏源宏观首席分析师李慧勇看来,欧洲央行买入人民币与美联储加息无关,而与最近人民币的强势有着直接关系。

  同样抱此观点的还有贾晋京。“美联储宣布加息之前,大家早就有共同的预期,各国金融机构包括央行在内都会进行相应的准备。而欧洲央行选择人民币是公开市场操作上的理性判断,因为从国际金融市场来看,人民币预期升值的可能性还是比较大。” 

  不过,在浙商银行经济分析师杨跃看来,欧洲央行增持与美联储加息存在一定的弱关系。

  他表示,美联储进入加息通道形成强势美元,会对全球金融市场以及其他主要国际货币格局产生较大影响。因此,高位波动的美元汇率会对各国行业管理美元外汇储备资产带来更多挑战。

  据了解,考虑到美元近年汇率波动幅度较大,拥有庞大美元外汇储备资产的国家纷纷致力于外汇储备多元化投资,将人民币纳入外汇储备资产。

  西方国家是否会跟进?

  近年来,人民币对外吸引力正在逐步增强。欧洲央行迈出第一步后,西方国家是否会增加人民币的外汇储备呢?

中新社发 吕建设 摄中新社发 吕建设 摄

  对此,白明表示:“我觉得会有一定的示范效应,因为欧洲央行的影响力、权威性还是比较强的,其他国家或许会跟进,倾向于配置人民币。”

  李慧勇也认为,正如英国作为西方大国第一个支持亚投行的建设一样,欧洲央行增加人民币外汇储备也会使其他国家纷纷效仿。

  在杨跃看来,欧洲央行增加人民币外汇储备是对人民币加入特别提款权的肯定,将对推进人民币国际化起到重要作用。作为全球最具影响力的央行,其行动也会产生扩散效应。

  截至去年第四季度,人民币外汇储备达845.1亿美元,约占参与官方外汇储备货币构成报告成员外储资产的1.07%,这与中国大国地位极不匹配。

  白明认为,要进一步提升人民币在全球外汇储备的占比,前提是人民币要稳定,稳定之后其占比自然会增加。

  不过,在贾晋京看来,没有必要追求人民币在国际上的外汇储备增加,而要追求人民币在国际上的信用。

  “信用的提高来自于国际上人民币的使用者,本质上来讲还是应该让人民币更加稳健,更加适用于投资和贸易的需要。”





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